Peace on the horizon: what it could mean for Europe’s solvent chains

August 20, 2025

Author: Felix Adam

If the war ends between Russia and Ukraine and sanctions are lifted, Europe’s chemicals market won’t snap back overnight, but the solvents value chain should be among the fastest to feel the change. Below is a practical, numbers-first outlook on acrylates, acetates, and glycols, their upstreams, and how a lower-risk, lower-cost operating environment could flow through to pricing, availability, and downstream demand.


The 2024–2025 starting point


  • EU chemical plants have been running below normal: capacity utilisation ~75% vs. an 81% long-run average. That slack shows up in weaker local supply and higher dependence on imports for several chains. 
  • Europe is still digesting large permanent shutdowns announced since 2023, which tightened some local supply even before peace arrives. 
  • Cost pressure and global oversupply in basic olefins have challenged margins and forced Europe to lean more on imports for building blocks. 




Acrylates (butyl acrylate, 2-ethylhexyl acrylate, ethyl acrylate)


Where Europe stands now (scale and upstreams)


  • EU capacity sits around 1.3 million tons of acrylic acid and ~850,000 tons of acrylate esters (the direct intermediates used to make BA/2-EHA/EA). These rely on propylene from steam crackers and refineries. 
  • Globally, butyl acrylate installed capacity is a little over 4.3 million tons, giving Europe multiple sourcing options when local economics are tight. 


What peace likely changes


  • Cheaper liquid feedstocks (naphtha, LPG) and steadier cracker runs would lower propylene costs, easing acrylic acid → acrylate ester cash costs. That supports softer offer levels for BA/2-EHA/EA and better availability into paints, adhesives, and sealants across the EU.
  • Freight and insurance normalisation—especially around the Black Sea and short-sea links—shrinks delivered cost into CEE and the Balkans, helping smaller converters who buy in IBCs, not just bulk.
  • Expect more stable quarterly pricing and shorter lead times as European plants take back share from imports in peak months.




Acetates (ethyl acetate, butyl acetate) and acetic acid


Where Europe stands now (numbers and flows)


  • Acetic acid is the upstream “engine” for both ethyl acetate and butyl acetate. The Europe acetic acid market is around 1.58 million tons in 2024. 
  • Ethyl acetate consumption in the EU was roughly 367,000 tons in 2024; EU exports were ~219,000 tons the same year, reflecting an active intra-EU and extra-EU trade. 
  • For n-butyl acetate, the EU still imports selectively: ~30,000 tons in 2023, with China as the dominant supplier by volume. Domestic output covers most needs, and imports top up. 
  • Recent price tone: butyl acetate in Germany averaged about $1,327/ton in Dec-2024, while ethyl acetate trended down in Q4-2024 on cheaper acetic acid and soft coatings demand. 


Upstreams and price logic


  • Acetic acid mostly comes from methanol carbonylation, so methanol and carbon monoxide costs drive the base. Europe is structurally exposed to methanol import pricing (CIF NWE), which tightened at times in 2024 when downstream demand in acetic/formaldehyde picked up and energy costs rose. 


What peace likely changes


  • Lower energy and naphtha costs should reduce acetic acid production costs where units run in Europe, and cut the CIF basis on imported acetic acid and methanol, pushing ethyl acetate and butyl acetate offers lower or at least steadier.
  • Construction and automotive refinishing—big end-uses for acetates—benefit from lower paint and thinner costs, supporting a volume recovery in Southern and Eastern Europe.
  • Expect narrower Europe–Asia price gaps; arbitrage windows shrink when freight and risk premia fall.




Glycols (monoethylene glycol, diethylene glycol, monopropylene glycol)


Where Europe stands now (numbers and sourcing)


  • The EU produced ~2.0 million tons of ethylene glycol in 2024, but consumed ~3.7 million tons, remaining a net importer. In 2023 the EU imported ~586,000 tons, largely from the United States and Saudi Arabia. 
  • Glycols depend on ethylene oxide → ethylene, so costs track naphtha and cracker operating rates in Europe, plus the CIF basis for imports.


What peace likely changes


  • Lower naphtha and firmer cracker utilisation reduce European glycol cash costs, while cheaper freight and lower insurance compress import parity from the U.S. Gulf and Middle East.
  • Downstream, polyester, PET packaging, coolants, and resins get modest cost relief—helpful for converters working on thin spreads since 2022.




Why peace disproportionately helps solvents


  1. Energy & feedstock relief travels quickly
  2. Solvent chains translate energy and feedstock changes into monthly or quarterly list prices. This pass-through is faster than in many polymer-heavy chains where contract frameworks are slower.
  3. Logistics normalisation
  4. Eliminating war-risk premia improves short-sea and river economics (Adriatic and Danube routes into CEE/Balkans), lowering delivered costs for IBCs and flexitanks as well as bulk.
  5. Demand recovery where it matters
  6. Coatings, adhesives, inks, and composites align with housing repair, infrastructure, and automotive—sectors that respond quickly to lower input costs and improving confidence.




Risks and counterweights


  • Global oversupply in basic chemicals doesn’t disappear with peace; Europe still competes with newer, lower-cost assets abroad. Some local plants may not restart even with cheaper energy. 
  • Policy and permitting: decarbonisation rules, REACH obligations, and local constraints can cap utilisation even when market signals turn positive.
  • Acetic acid and methanol volatility: if global turnarounds or outages hit these upstreams, acetates can tighten despite regional peace. Recent swings in methanol underline that point. 




What to watch on your dashboard


  • Ethyl acetate: EU consumption and export pace (IndexBox updates), spot offers vs. acetic acid and methanol trends. 
  • Butyl acetate: EU import cadence and supplier mix (WITS), Germany monthly averages as a bellwether. 
  • Acrylates: EU acrylic acid and ester utilisation vs. propylene costs; look for signs that European capacity (~1.3 Mt acrylic acid; ~0.85 Mt esters) is running harder. 
  • Glycols: EU ethylene glycol import volumes by origin (WITS), ethylene and naphtha spreads. 
  • Macro health: EU capacity utilisation and any new closure or restart announcements. 




Bottom line for Europe


In a peace scenario, solvents should be early movers:


  • Price bias: gentle downward pressure at first for acrylates, acetates, and glycols as feedstocks and logistics normalise—then stabilisation as European plants reset the floor.
  • Availability: better spot liquidity, shorter lead times, and narrower Europe–Asia differentials.
  • Competitiveness: converters gain breathing room; distributors can hold tighter working-capital cycles; and the coatings/adhesives ecosystem across the Balkans and CEE benefits from lower delivered cost per kilogram.